Joby Aviation jumps 5.7% on heavy volume, but the charts still scream caution

Joby Aviation (JOBY) shares popped 5.7% Wednesday on nearly double the average daily volume, the kind of move that gets traders leaning in. But step back from the noise and the tape tells a different story: the stock is still entrenched below every major moving average, with an RSI at 34.5 that’s flirting with oversold but hasn’t flipped the script. The 5.7% spike? It’s a snapback in a downtrend, not a breakout. And until the stock reclaims the 50-day at $9.79 — let alone the 20-day at $10.55 — the path of least resistance remains lower.

The surge Wednesday came with volume confirming the move (2.5x the 30-day average), which gives the bounce some credibility. But this has all the hallmarks of a short-covering rally in a name that’s been beaten down roughly 50% from its 52-week high. The smart money is waiting to see if this thing can base-build above $8.50 before calling a real turn.

Fundamental Picture

Let’s not sugarcoat it: Joby is a pre-revenue story with a $9.5 billion market cap and gross margins that technically exist only because of a thin stream of government service contracts. The $77.7 million in reported revenue is from pilot services and early-stage contracts, not aircraft sales — the actual core business hasn’t generated a dime yet. Operating margins of negative 963% and a net loss per share of $1.14 underline a business that is spending heavily on R&D, certification, and manufacturing scale-up with zero commercial revenue to show for it.

Here’s the flip side: Joby ended the quarter with $2.47 billion in cash and equivalents, giving it one of the longest runways in the eVTOL space. Even at a $380 million free cash flow burn rate, that’s north of six years of operations — assuming no additional fundraises. The debt load of $747 million (debt-to-equity of 38%) is manageable, and the current ratio of 22 is absurdly high. This is a company that can weather delays. But the stock is pricing in flawless execution. Any slip in the FAA type certification timeline — currently at Stage 4 of 5 — and valuation multiples will compress fast.

Technical Picture

The daily chart is ugly, plain and simple. Price is below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages — a bearish alignment even if the 20-day remains above the 50-day. The breakdown from mid-May was confirmed by a volume spike on June 5, and every rally attempt since has failed to reclaim the 50-day MA. RSI at 34.5 is approaching oversold, but it’s not there yet, and there is no bullish divergence to suggest the selling is exhausted. Support sits at $8.50–$8.70 from prior lows in April and June. If that fails, the next meaningful floor is $7.00, where the stock found bids in early 2024.

Wednesday’s volume spike is notable, but one-day bounces in a downtrend are traps until proven otherwise. Look for a close above $9.79 to change the technical narrative.

News Context

This week’s pop comes on the heels of significant regulatory progress. The FAA approved Joby’s Part 135 air carrier certificate in December 2024, clearing the way for the company to operate its own aircraft commercially once type certification is secured. The FAA is now in Stage 4 of a 5-stage certification process, with completion expected in the second half of 2025 — a timeline that has held despite industry-wide skepticism. The Delta Air Lines partnership, formalized in March 2025, adds a blue-chip distribution channel for airport shuttles starting in New York and Los Angeles. And the U.S. Air Force Agility Prime contract worth up to $131 million gives Joby a paying customer before commercial launch.

Analyst sentiment is split but leaning bullish. J.P. Morgan upgraded to Overweight in February with a $10.50 target, citing certification progress and the Delta deal. Goldman Sachs holds at Neutral at $7.00, flagging execution risk. The $300 million convertible note offering closed in March removed near-term funding concerns but added dilutive overhang. The primary risk is timing: if type certification slips into 2026, the stock could revisit $7.00 or lower as patience wears thin.

Outlook

Joby sits at a crossroads. The balance sheet is fortress-like for a pre-revenue startup, the regulatory path is clearer than any public eVTOL rival, and the commercial partnerships (Delta, Air Force) are real. Wednesday’s volume spike suggests some institutional interest stepping in at these levels. But the technical picture demands a cautious approach. Until the stock reclaims the 50-day moving average and shows follow-through above $9.00, this is a show-me story best watched from the sidelines. If you’re long, keep tight stops below $8.50. If you’re waiting for an entry, wait for a base to form and a break above the 20-day moving average before committing.